Results
Results are shown in Table 8. After a median follow-up of 4.2 years, the incidence of invasive breast cancer was reduced by 44% among women assigned to tamoxifen (86 cases on tamoxifen, 156 cases on placebo; p <0.00001; RR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.72). A reduction in the incidence of breast cancer was seen in each prospectively specified age group (≤49, 50-59, ≥60), in women with or without LCIS, and in each of the absolute risk levels specified in Table 8. A non-significant decrease in the incidence of DCIS was seen (23 tamoxifen, 35 placebo; RR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.39 to 1.11).
There was no statistically significant difference in the number of myocardial infarctions, severe angina, or acute ischemic cardiac events between the two groups (61 tamoxifen, 59 placebo; RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.73 to 1.49).
No overall difference in mortality (53 deaths in tamoxifen group vs. 65 deaths in placebo group) was present. No difference in breast cancer-related mortality was observed (4 deaths in tamoxifen group vs. 5 deaths in placebo group).
Although there was a non-significant reduction in the number of hip fractures (9 on tamoxifen, 20 on placebo) in the tamoxifen group, the number of wrist fractures was similar in the two treatment groups (69 on tamoxifen, 74 on placebo). A subgroup analysis of the trial suggested a difference in effect on bone mineral density (BMD) related to menopausal status in patients receiving tamoxifen. In postmenopausal women, there was no evidence of bone loss of the lumbar spine and hip. Conversely, tamoxifen was associated with significant bone loss of the lumbar spine and hip in premenopausal women.
Tamoxifen increased the risk for endometrial cancer, DVT, PE, stroke, cataract formation, and cataract surgery (see Table 8).
Table 8 summarizes the major outcomes of the NSABP P-1 trial. For most participants, multiple risk factors would have been required for eligibility. This table considers risk factors individually, regardless of other co- existing risk factors, for women who developed breast cancer. The 5-year predicted absolute breast cancer risk accounts for multiple risk factors in an individual and should provide the best estimate of individual benefit.
Table 8: Major Outcomes of the NSABP P-1 Trial in Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer| Type of Event | # of events | Rate per 1,000 Women per Year | RR | 95% CI |
|---|
| Placebo | Tamoxifen | Placebo | Tamoxifen |
|---|
| Invasive breast cancer | 156 | 86 | 6.49 | 3.58 | 0.56 | 0.43 to 0.72 |
| 5-year predicted breast cancer risk (as calculated by the Breast Cancer Assessment Tool) |
| ≤2.00% | 31 | 13 | 5.36 | 2.26 | 0.42 | 0.22 to 0.81 |
| 2.01 to 3.00% | 39 | 28 | 5.25 | 3.83 | 0.73 | 0.45 to 1.18 |
| 3.01 to 5.00% | 36 | 26 | 5.37 | 4.06 | 0.76 | 0.46 to 1.26 |
| ≥5.00% | 50 | 19 | 13.15 | 4.71 | 0.36 | 0.21 to 0.61 |
| Individual Risk Factors |
| Age Groups | | | | | | |
| Age ≤49 | 59 | 38 | 6.34 | 4.11 | 0.65 | 0.43 to 0.98 |
| Age 50 to 59 | 46 | 25 | 6.31 | 3.53 | 0.56 | 0.35 to 0.91 |
| Age ≥60 | 51 | 23 | 7.17 | 3.22 | 0.45 | 0.27 to 0.74 |
| Risk factors for breast cancer history, LCIS |
| No | 140 | 78 | 6.23 | 3.51 | 0.56 | 0.43 to 0.74 |
| Yes | 16 | 8 | 12.73 | 6.33 | 0.50 | 0.21 to 1.17 |
| History, atypical hyperplasia |
| No | 138 | 84 | 6.37 | 3.89 | 0.61 | 0.47 to 0.80 |
| Yes | 18 | 2 | 8.69 | 1.05 | 0.12 | 0.03 to 0.52 |
| Number of first degree relatives with breast cancer |
| 0 | 32 | 17 | 5.97 | 3.26 | 0.55 | 0.30 to 0.98 |
| 1 | 80 | 45 | 5.81 | 3.31 | 0.57 | 0.40 to 0.82 |
| 2 | 35 | 18 | 8.92 | 4.67 | 0.52 | 0.30 to 0.92 |
| ≥3 | 9 | 6 | 13.33 | 7.58 | 0.57 | 0.20 to 1.59 |
| DCIS | 35 | 23 | 1.47 | 0.97 | 0.66 | 0.39 to 1.11 |
| Safety Endpoints |
Fractures (protocol-specified sites) | 921
| 76
| 3.87 | 3.20 | 0.61 | 0.83 to 1.12 |
| Hip | 20 | 9 | 0.84 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.18 to 1.04 |
| Wrist
| 74 | 69 | 3.11 | 2.91 | 0.93 | 0.67 to 1.29 |
| Total ischemic events | 59 | 61 | 2.47 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 0.71 to 1.51 |
| Myocardial infarction | 27 | 27 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.57 to 1.78 |
| Fatal | 8 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.88 | 0.27 to 2.77 |
| Nonfatal | 19 | 20 | 0.79 | 0.84 | 1.06 | 0.54 to 2.09 |
| Angina
| 12 | 12 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.41 to 2.44 |
| Acute ischemic syndrome
| 20 | 22 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 1.11 | 0.58 to 2.13 |
| Uterine malignancies
| 17 | 57 | | | | |
| Endometrial adenocarcinoma
| 17 | 53 | 0.71 | 2.20 | | |
| Uterine sarcoma
| 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.17 | | |
| Stroke
| 24 | 34 | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 0.82 to 2.51 |
| Transient ischemic attack | 21 | 18 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.43 to 1.70 |
| Pulmonary emboli
| 6 | 18 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 3.01 | 1.15 to 9.27 |
| Deep vein thrombosis
| 19 | 30 | 0.79 | 1.26 | 1.59 | 0.86 to 2.98 |
| Cataracts developing on study
| 483 | 540 | 22.51 | 25.41 | 1.13 | 1.00 to 1.28 |
| Underwent cataract surgery
| 63 | 101 | 2.83 | 4.57 | 1.62 | 1.18 to 2.22 |
| Underwent cataract surgery
| 129 | 201 | 5.44 | 8.56 | 1.58 | 1.26 to 1.97 |
Table 9 describes the characteristics of the breast cancers in the NSABP P-1 trial in women at high risk for breast cancer. Tamoxifen decreased the incidence of small estrogen receptor-positive tumors, but did not alter the incidence of estrogen receptor-negative tumors or larger tumors.
Table 9: Characteristics of the Breast Cancers in NSABP P-1 Trial| Staging Parameter | Placebo | Tamoxifen |
|---|
| N = 156 | N = 86 |
|---|
| Tumor size |
| T1 | 117 | 60 |
| T2 | 28 | 20 |
| T3 | 7 | 3 |
| T4 | 1 | 2 |
| Unknown | 3 | 1 |
| Nodal status | |
| Negative | 103 | 56 |
| 1 to 3 positive nodes | 29 | 14 |
| ≥4 positive nodes | 10 | 12 |
| Unknown | 14 | 4 |
| Stage |
| I | 88 | 47 |
| II: node-negative | 15 | 9 |
| II: node-positive | 33 | 22 |
| III | 6 | 4 |
| IV | 2
| 1 |
| Unknown | 12 | 3 |
| Estrogen receptor status |
| Positive | 115 | 38 |
| Negative | 27 | 36 |
| Unknown | 14 | 12 |
The 7-year follow-up for the NSABP P-1 trial confirmed the initial findings. The cumulative rates of invasive and non-invasive breast cancer were reduced with tamoxifen. The risks of stroke, deep-vein thrombosis, and cataracts and of ischemic heart disease and death were also similar to those initially reported. Risks of pulmonary embolism were lower than in the original report, and risks of endometrial cancer were higher, but these differences were not statistically significant.